Peak Car and Beyond: The Fourth Era of Travel

There is emerging evidence that personal daily travel, particularly by car, has ceased to grow in the developed economies. This can be attributed to saturation of demand, given high levels of access and choice now widely available, together with constraints on higher speeds. We are therefore at a time of transition from an era of growth of per capita travel to an era of stability, in which the future factors determining the growth of total travel demand are demographic — population growth, increasing longevity, and urbanisation. The peak car phenomenon, which marks this transition, is seen in successful cities that attract a growing population whose travel needs are increasingly met by investment in rail-based transport, the revival of which is a characteristic of the new era. The future is already here — it’s just not evenly distributed. (William Gibson)